Sportstensor Incentive Mechanism

Why is this important?

  • Closing odds represent the pinnacle of market efficiency, determined by thousands of advanced machine learning algorithms.

  • Our subnet fosters the development of true machine intelligence by outperforming competing algorithms in a highly competitive AI-versus-AI environment.

  • Even with sophisticated models, bettors struggle to be profitable, as bookmakers frequently impose strict limits on consistent winners.

  • There is substantial demand for high-performing predictive AI from betting operators, financial firms, syndicates, and algorithmic traders seeking more accurate models.

  • We attract top AI and machine learning talent from diverse industries, encouraging them to revolutionize sports prediction markets.

  • By decentralizing the creation and improvement of predictive models, we reduce reliance on any single entity or algorithm, enhancing resilience and driving innovation in the sports prediction market.

Miner and Validator Functionality

Miner

  • Receives requests from the Validator containing specific information such as team names and match details.

  • Accesses historical data and current statistics relevant to the teams involved in the query from sports databases.

  • Utilizes trained machine learning models to analyze the data and predict the team they think will win and the probability.

  • Returns the prediction back to the Validator for confirmation and further action.

Miners must return two key pieces of information when responding to prediction requests:

  1. probabilityChoice: The predicted outcome (Home team, Away team, Draw).

  2. probability: The probability for that outcome, as a float between 0 and 1. e.g. 0.6 represents 60% probability.

Miners who fail to respond or provide incorrect responses will be penalized.

Validator

  • Match Syncing: The validator operates in an endless loop, syncing match data every 30 minutes. This includes checking upcoming, in-progress, and completed games.

  • League Commitment: Validators send requests every 15 minutes to acquire the active leagues a miner is committed to. Miners are required to respond with predictions for all matches in their committed leagues or receive a penalty. Miners who fail to commit to at least one league will be incrementally penalized until committing or deregistering.

  • Match Prediction Requests: Prediction requests are sent out at specific time intervals (24 hours, 12 hours, 4 hours, and 10 minutes before a match). Miners are penalized for non-responses.

  • Closing Edge Scoring: After match completion, the validator calculates the closing edge scores for each prediction and updates the local database to be used later in the scoring and weights logic.

If you're wondering what Closing Edge is, you can refer to this formula:

edge = consensus_closing_odds - (1 / prediction_prob)

  • Prediction Cleanup: Non-registered miners and outdated predictions are regularly cleaned from the system to ensure only valid data is kept.

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